Economic Development Research Group Blog

Change is the Only Constant: Incorporating Technology into Scenario Planning

Departments of transportation increasingly use scenario planning to prepare for future changes that will affect the movement of people and goods. Scenario planning requires planners to prepare for a range of possible futures, considering topics like climate change, demographics, and emerging technology. Technological change is perhaps the most difficult issue to address given the wide uncertainty surrounding new mobility and the number of private operators involved in transportation. EDR Group is currently working with the Texas Department of Transportation to help them adjust their travel modeling practices to account for emerging technologies. Our work considers the role of autonomous vehicles and teleworking on passenger vehicle and transit trip generation, as well as impacts on long-distance freight travel and local goods delivery. We consider these impacts under an expected scenario and optimistic scenarioboth with a 2045 horizon year.     Source: Next Generation Scenario Planning: A Transportation Practitioner’s Guide, June 2017, FHWA,...
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